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As photovoltaic technology has firmly transitioned into the N-type era, the market penetration of N-type components has surged exponentially. According to comprehensive data from Sobi PV Network, global shipments of N-type modules soared from approximately 20GW in 2022 to a staggering 121GW in 2023, marking a remarkable fivefold expansion. Projections indicate that this momentum will persist, with anticipated shipments reaching 400GW by 2024, commanding over 80% of the global market share. Notably, within this burgeoning landscape, N-type TOPCon components are forecasted to dominate, accounting for more than 70% of the market, surpassing even the most optimistic expectations in terms of development velocity.
A retrospective analysis of the photovoltaic industry’s evolution underscores the breathtaking pace of technological innovation. Post-2017, PERC technology swiftly usurped BSF batteries, escalating its market share from a modest 15% to a dominant 91.2% within five years. Remarkably, the transition from P-type to N-type technology has occurred at an even more accelerated pace, spanning merely two years. This accelerated iteration within the industry is a testament to the inexorable laws governing scientific and technological progress, coupled with the relentless market drive for superior efficiency and cost-effectiveness in technology adoption.
Based on the Technology Lifecycle (TLC) theory, the development of a technology typically traverses four distinct phases: the Research and Development (R&D) phase, the Growth phase, the Maturity phase, and eventually the Decline phase. Currently, photovoltaic n-type technology is situated in the golden period of transitioning from the Growth phase to the Maturity phase. During this time, the market size continues to expand significantly, attracting an increasing number of enterprises to enter the field, while application scenarios are also diversifying rapidly.
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